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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, coming around the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.