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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.