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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.